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What Causes What
Socioeconomic status

Employment status

In work or not. The outcome most often falsely credited to vitamins.

Unemployment is a health shock and a selection process. Observational papers that find supplement users 'less unemployed' are almost always looking at Healthy User Bias wearing a lab coat.

Also called job holding, occupational class.

Connected relationships

MECHANISM+ INCREASES

Observational · High confidence

Social capital→Employment status

Higher Social capital increases Employment status.

Weak ties carry jobs: Granovetter (1973) showed acquaintances bring novel job information, and Rajkumar (2022) tested that claim by randomizing LinkedIn's People You May Know among more than 20 million members over five years.

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SMOKE0 NULL

Observational · High confidence

Vitamin / mineral supplementation→Employment status

A rise in Vitamin / mineral supplementation does not identify a change in Employment status.

People who buy vitamins look more employed because they already differ in ways that keep jobs, not because the pill caused the job. Shrank (2011) named that healthy-user bias. Simpson (2006) measured the same selection as death, not employment: in 21 studies and 46,847 people, good adherence, including to placebo, had an odds ratio of 0.56 for mortality.

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MENDELIAN0 NULL

Mendelian randomization · High confidence

25-hydroxyvitamin D→Employment status

A rise in 25-hydroxyvitamin D does not identify a change in Employment status.

Genetic instruments for 25(OH)D do not buy you a job. The observational D–success link was a marker.

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Cases

Sources